THE REASONABLENESS OF CONCLUSIONS:
Before attempting to draw conclusions, it is important to critically examine the basis upon which these conclusions rest. Only then shall we be able to assess what faith we should have in our conclusions. Consider these statements and comments:
- STATEMENT: Valid conclusions may be drawn as to the relative positions of the eight organizations examined regarding the Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming.
- COMMENT: This statement is reasonable if it is assumed that the quotations from each organization's website fairly represent the organization's whole website.
- STATEMENT: The eight organizations examined fairly represent the range of opinions within and without the scientific community regarding the Hypothesis.
- COMMENT: There is no reason to assume that this statement is correct. A far more exhaustive study involving many more organizations and individuals would be necessary. However, it may be reasonable to assume that the instructor of this course has made some attempt to provide a representative range of opinions.
- STATEMENT: Valid conclusions may be drawn as to the degree of consensus amongst the organizations examined as to the answers to the four questions raised about the Hypothesis.
- COMMENT: This statement is fairly reasonable. However, if an organization provided no information regarding a question, its position on the question is uncertain and the degree of consensus may be greater or lesser than concluded.
- STATEMENT: The degree of consensus amongst the eight organizations fairly reflects the degree of consensus within and without the scientific community upon answers to the four questions.
- COMMENT: There is no reason to assume that this statement is correct. A far more exhaustive study involving many more organizations and individuals would be necessary.
- STATEMENT: Valid conclusions may be drawn as to the trust each organization merits.
- COMMENT: This statement is reasonable only if the 'reliability criteria' are acceptable. If a different set of criteria were employed, then different conclusions might be drawn about an organization's trustworthiness.
- STATEMENT: Conclusions drawn in this exercise regarding correlation between an organization's trustworthiness and its position regarding the hypothesis may be considered valid for all organizations.
- COMMENT: There is no basis for this conclusion. If eight different organizations had been chosen, the results might have been very different. However, it may be reasonable to assume that the instructor of this course has made some attempt to provide a representative sample of organizations.
- STATEMENT: There is a direct correlation between an organization's trustworthiness and the correctness of its position regarding the Hypothesis.
- COMMENT: There is no reason to conclude that because an organization is 'trustworthy' its position regarding the Hypothesis is correct, nor that if an organization is deemed 'untrustworthy' its position regarding the Hypothesis is incorrect.
- STATEMENT: Science demands that in attempting to find an answer to a problem (drawing a conclusion), an acceptable procedure be followed. That procedure does not ensure the 'correctness' of an answer, but it does ensure that in the view of the scientific community, an answer that is 'accepted' will have a high probability of being correct.
- COMMENT: 'Trustworthiness' (as defined by appropriate 'reliability criteria') of those examining an issue and a high degree of consensus are likely to persuade the scientific community that a position or an answer has a high probability of being correct.
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