|STORM SURGE COMPARISON TABLE WORKSHEET D-3B|
|According to the NASA-Goddard study:||According to the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) study for Manhattan Site 3:|
|Right now, a '100-year flood' could inundate areas of NYC whose elevation is less than 10 feet.||For Site 3, right now areas less than what elevation would be inundated by a 100-year flood? |
Less than *______ feet (to the nearest tenth of a foot).
|On the basis of the above information, indicate which organization (NASA-Goddard or ACE) predicts more damaging consequences if a 100-year flood took place tomorrow: |
|By the 2080s, in a worst case scenario (in which sea level rises by nearly 3.6 feet for some NYC coasts), those areas that now would be inundated by a 100-year flood (that is, a flood with a recurrence interval = 100 years) instead could be flooded (on average) every four years. That is, by the 2080s, a line that marks the floodwater limits for what is now a 100-year flood, would mark the limits of a four-year flood.||Remember that when a storm surge occurs, the rise in water level is always added to whatever is the sea level at that time. Thus, in the future, for example, if sea level rises by 2 feet, then a 10 foot storm surge would inundate areas that today have elevations up to 12 feet.
Assume that by the 2080s, sea level rises by nearly 3.6 feet. By how many feet would a storm surge have to raise the level of the water to flood areas that today are less than 10 feet in elevation?
At Site 3 in Manhattan, what is the percent chance annually for such a storm surge?
What is the recurrence interval for such a storm surge? The recurrence interval is *_______ years.
|*On the basis of the above information, for the frequency of flooding for areas that today are less than 10 feet above sea level, how do estimates of hazard in the 2080s made by the Army Corps of Engineers compare with estimates of hazard in the 2080s made by NASA-Goddard? (About the same? Much greater? Lesser?)('About the same' means from about one-third to three times the value.)*_____________|
|Having made this comparison, how important do you feel it is to check more than one source of information? (Very Important; Somewhat Important; Not Important)|
©2005 David J. Leveson