REACHING A CONCLUSION:
With an understanding of the limitations of any answer provided by this exercise, the following question now may be addressed:
IS THE HYPOTHESIS OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING CORRECT?
The answer chosen will rest upon the twin pillars of 'trustworthiness' and 'consensus'. Follow these instructions:
- To arrive at a judgment of 'trustworthiness', click on the blue button to interpret the Trust-Position Graph using the Trust-Position Matching Table.
- Record your results in the 'Results Table' located in the upper part of theTrust-Position Interpretation Worksheet (CP-1). Make sure to use the answer-check. .
- Match your Trust-Position Graph plot (RP-3) with the one that most closely resembles it on the Trust-Position Matching Table. Then fill out the 'Interpretation Table' located on the lower part of Worksheet CP-1.
- To arrive at a judgment of 'consensus', refer to your Global Warming Consensus Index Table (PP-4).
- Use these two judgments to arrive at an answer to the question: "Is the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming correct?":
- Click on the pink button marked "P" to print out the Conclusions Worksheet (CP-2).
- On the Conclusions Worksheet, indicate whether the statements in the 'Trustworthiness' and 'Consensus' columns are correct or incorrect by marking the appropriate boxes.
- Indicate whether you agree or disagree with the statements in the 'Answer' column by marking the appropriate boxes.
- CONSISTENCY: Make sure that for each row and each column, the responses indicated by the boxes you have marked are consistent with each other. For example,
- in the 'TRUSTWORTHINESS' column, at most only one of the choices may be marked 'Correct'.
- in the 'ANSWER' column, you must 'AGREE' with one of the statements (but no more than one).
- EXAMPLE (see below): The person filling out the worksheet example shown below concludes that:
- Because all of those who strongly reject the Hypothesis merit the highest trust rating and all of those with the highest trust rating strongly reject the Hypothesis, and
- Because the 'Consensus Average' description ('high for "no"') indicates that there is great consensus that the answers to the four questions are "No",
- Therefore it is agreed that the Hypothesis is incorrect.